OPINION: Josh Hawley is vulnerable in next year’s Senate election. Even Donald Trump knows it

By JASON KANDER

If you’ve followed election coverage over the last year or so, the pundits might lead you to believe something new is happening.

Despite high disapproval for President Joe Biden in red states such as Kentucky and Mississippi, Democrats outperformed their party’s presidential margin in statewide races by double digits.

And after Republican-dominated legislatures passed extreme abortion bans in red states like Kansas and Ohio, voters delivered huge wins for reproductive rights and democracy.

But the truth is, this isn’t all that new. While pundits and insiders increasingly divide us into columns of red and blue based on their one-dimensional view of politics, voters continue to confound their expectations in election after election

Take where I live — Missouri — for example. While the state has shifted solidly red in presidential preferences since 2012, Democrats have won a half-dozen statewide campaigns, even as recently as 2018. And when Missouri politicians have adopted extreme positions on issues such as abortion, workers’ rights or health care, they’ve often seen their out-of-touch agendas soundly rejected by voters.

Just like voters in states where we’ve seen big wins for Democrats and pro-freedom initiatives in the past year, hundreds of thousands of voters in Missouri are still splitting their tickets.

I know this more than most because I’ve lived it. In 2012, I won the race for Missouri secretary of state. And in 2016, I fell just 2.8 percent short of defeating a longtime Republican incumbent for U.S. Senate, outperforming the Democratic presidential ticket’s margin by more than 16 percent.

After decades of Republican-led culture wars, the national Democratic Party struggles in states like Missouri. But in races where well-funded candidates can set themselves apart and make it clear to voters that they’ll fight for them in office, Democrats can outrun the party. And they can defeat divisive and corrupt opponents.

FACING A LABOR-BACKED VETERAN
That’s the dynamic we’re seeing in Missouri’s current U.S. Senate race, as Democrat Lucas Kunce takes on incumbent Republican Hawley. Much like my race in 2016, 2024 pits a Labor-backed veteran against a politician — except people actually liked my opponent. (Roy Blunt never tried to overthrow the government violently just to get his name out there.)

Now up for reelection in 2024, Hawley faces Kunce, a Marine veteran and leading antitrust advocate who’s broken fundraising records, rallied Missouri’s election-winning Labor Movement behind him and built a reputation as a different kind of Democrat who speaks truth to power, regardless of party.

And polls already show a tightening race.

LOWER APPROVAL THAN TED CRUZ, RICK SCOTT
Hawley famously popped popcorn in his dorm room to gleefully watch the invasion of Iraq and then claimed a decade later to have opposed the war.

But in Missouri, he’s also become known as a desperately anti-union scab who is self-consciously obsessed with manhood. From blocking defense nominations to voting against health care for veterans exposed to burn pits, Hawley has put his personal politics ahead of national security and the needs of military families. And he’s used his office to build a family business dedicated to restricting abortion access nationwide as his allies in Jefferson City enacted one of the nation’s most extreme abortion bans.

Now with five years under Hawley’s belt in the U.S. Senate, Missourians don’t like what they’ve seen.

Multiple public polls — including one from Morning Consult released last month — show Hawley has the lowest approval of any Republican senator running for reelection in 2024, lower than Sens. Ted Cruz, of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida. And even his mentor, Missouri’s former U.S. Sen. John Danforth, has called backing Hawley the “worst mistake I ever made.”

Donald Trump is well aware Hawley’s seat is in danger. “So interesting that the Democrats are looking hard at the Senate races in both Missouri and Texas,” he posted Sunday on his vanity social media site Truth Social. “Josh and Ted must be very careful, stranger things have happened!!!”

KUNCE CAN BEAT HAWLEY
Hawley is vulnerable, and he knows it. The proof is in his rapidly changing election-season rhetoric, Republicans in Washington fretting about their draconian abortion bans across the country, and Hawley’s billionaire allies launching a new pro-Hawley super PAC right after Kunce entered the race.

Just as we saw in elections across the country — both this year and in the last decade — pundits and presidential politics won’t be deciding the result of every race in 2024. Voters will be.

Lucas Kunce can defeat Josh Hawley. With Joe Manchin’s retirement taking West Virginia’s Senate race off the board, Missouri is the perfect candidate to replace it. And for anyone who cares about democracy, reproductive freedom, health care access and working families, this race should be a priority.

(Jason Kander is a bestselling author, formerMissouri’s Secretary of State and the host of the “Majority 54” podcast. His most recent book is “Invisible Storm: A Soldier’s Memoir of Politics and PTSD.” He lives in Kansas City. Reprinted from the Kansas City Times.)